GEOSTRATEGIC DYNAMICS IN THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN SEA

EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN SABRE RATTLING BETWEEN CYPRUS AND TURKEY

Parallel to current saber rattling in the SOUTHERN ATLANTIC between BRITAIN and ARGENTINA, similar posturing can be observed in the EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN SEA between CYPRUS and TURKEY regarding recent gas and possible oil findings. Adding fuel to the fire is ISRAEL’S Prime Ministers State visit to CYPRUS. This comes at a time when CYPRUS frequently accused TURKEY of using "bullying behaviour" over the division of the island and recent natural gas finds. (See: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2012/02/british-multiple-offensive.html )
Gas production is set to climb in the EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN following the discovery of huge offshore reserves that have sparked competing maritime claims involving TURKEY, CYPRUS, LEBANON and ISRAEL.

TURKEYS SHOW OF FORCE IS AN ATTEMPT TO INTIMIDATE CYPRUS AND ISRAEL 

CYPRUS politicians told ISRAELI ARMY RADIO in an interview that TURKEY had held numerous and "provocative" military exercises in the eastern Mediterranean over the past few months. The show of force is an attempt to threaten CYPRUS and ISRAEL and try to discourage foreign companies from cooperating with the two countries in gas exploration and production. A totally unacceptable behaviour on the part of TURKEY and something CYPRUS condemns strongly. CYPRUS'S attempts to tap offshore hydrocarbon riches has angered Ankara, which challenges Nicosia's jurisdiction in searching for oil and gas.

CYPRUS AND ISRAEL TO BECOME MAJOR GAS EXPORTERS IN THE NOT TOO DISTANT FUTURE 

Texas-based NOBLE ENERGY, which is working with both CYPRUS and ISRAEL, reported an offshore gas prospect of between 5 trillion and 8 trillion cubic feet for CYPRUS, a find which could make it self-sufficient in the commodity for decades. Gas production is also set to soar in Israel and it could become a major exporter from finds that could last for the next 40 years.
NOBLE is working with ISRAEL'S DELEK ENERGY to develop the "TAMAR" field, with reserves estimated at 9.1 trillion cubic feet, and "LEVIATHAN" which is nearly twice as big.
The TURKISH CYPRIOTS and TURKEY, which invaded north CYPRUS in 1974 after a brief GREECE-inspired coup, plan retaliatory exploration in northern CYPRUS.
ISRAEL and CYPRUS have agreed their adjoining areas of maritime jurisdiction. TURKEY, which controls northern CYPRUS, disputes its border with CYPRUS and LEBANON, which is in a state of war with ISRAEL and has also not agreed on a joint border between the two.

CYPRUS: GAS LICENCES BID LAUNCHED

At the eve of the first ever ISRAELI State visit to the Island, CYPRUS announced the second licensing round for offshore exploration of hydrocarbons in its EXCLUSIVE ECONOMIC ZONE (EEZ), less than two months after the discovery of substantial natural gas deposits south of the island.
The notice invites licence applications to search for mineral deposits inside the island's 51,000 square kilometre EEZ. Twelve offshore blocks rimming the island's south are on offer for potential exploration and exploitation of oil and gas. Block 12 is currently under concession to Houston-based NOBLE ENERGY, which back in December said it discovered an estimated 5 to 8 trillion cubic feet there. Block 12 lies close to where neighbouring ISRAEL has reported significant discoveries.

EXCLUSIVE ECONOMIC ZONE 

Meanwhile CYPRUS officials from the ministries of foreign affairs and commerce are currently in the final stages of negotiating a unitization agreement with ISRAEL. This would arrange gas prospects into discrete units, given that some of the CYPRIOT Prospects in the eastern Mediterranean border and/or overlap ISRAELI ones.

ISRAEL TO STATION MILITARY JETS IN CYPRUS?

ISRAEL allegedly will use the first ever state visit to CYPRUS to sounding out the government over a request to station military jets at the ANDREAS PAPANDREOU airbase in PAPHOS, CYPRUS.

ANDREAS PAPANDREOU airbase in PAPHOS, CYPRUS

 If these allegations prove accurate, the visit of ISRAELI Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to CYPRUS may coincide with a ground-breaking shake up of geostrategic dynamics in the region.  It was not clear though if ISRAEL will request a permanent presence on the island or establishing a base that can provide logistical support to the ISRAELI AIR FORCE (IAF) during operations in the region.
As mentioned in previous postings, ISRAEL needs to search for alternative external bases in order to compensate for recent loss of military cooperation and strongholds in TURKEY because of TURKEYS sudden change of attitude towards ISRAEL. (See: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2011/09/warmongerning-between-israel-and-turkey.html  )
Apparently ISRAEL and CYPRUS are seeking to strengthen defence ties as part of efforts to protect offshore oil and gas interests. CYPRUS and ISRAEL already signed two defence agreements in recent past.
CYPRUS seems keen to monitor the air space above its gas fields and increase navy patrols in its EXCLUSIVE ECONOMIC ZONE with the help of ISRAEL and GREECE as it lacks an efficient air force of its own. ISRAEL on the other hand will be looking to find ways to counter potential threats from SYRIA and HEZBOLLAH against its offshore infrastructure.

DIPLOMATIC DOORS NOT ENTIRELY CLOSED BETWEEN ISRAEL AND TURKEY

Interesting to note however is that at the same time diplomatic  relations between TURKEY and ISRAEL at an all times low, ISRAEL remains open to thawing its frosty relations with former military ally TURKEY and thus will likely invite TURKEY to participate in a large-scale international aerial drill to be hosted in ISRAEL in 2013. Economic relations between the two countries seems not have been effected by the dispute, as recent trade figures indicate. See: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2012/01/see-no-evil-hear-no-evil.html
Furthermore TURKEY permitted the installation of a NATO anti missile radar on its border with Iran, the information of which will be made also available to the IDF (Israeli Defense Forces). Thus it will be interesting to see what impact the current geopolitical and strategic shift among key players in the region will have on friends and foes alike.

Parts of above article have been adopted from the Cyprus Mail