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| "C-Gate" the only UN manned crossing point between ISRAEL and SYRIA |
ISRAEL’S GEO-STRATEGIC BENEFIT REQUIRES COLLAPSE OF ASSAD REGIME
Executive
Summary:
- “Split” in ISRAEL’S intelligence community
- ISRAEL’S choice between two evils
- Fall of the regime will weaken IRAN’S strategic position in the MIDDLE EAST?
By John
Davison
A rebel victory in SYRIA’S civil war
would be the most positive outcome for ISRAEL despite fears of instability and
a stronger jihadist presence on the Golan should the regime collapse, analysts
say.
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| 40 years stable Eastern frontier because of Assad clan |
The SYRIAN conflict has increasingly
affected ISRAEL, as alarm mounts over the deployment of President Bashar
al-Assad’s chemical weapons arsenal and the potential for it to fall into the
hands of non-state militant groups.
The conflict has split the ISRAELI defence
community into two camps — those who oppose the fall of Assad, and those who
see his ouster as less dangerous for ISRAEL.
But experts believe a rebel victory
would have the best geostrategic implications for ISRAEL.
“The defence advantages of Assad
going outweigh the potential security risks,” said Jonathan Spyer, a senior
researcher at the Global Research in International Affairs Centre in Herzliya,
near Tel Aviv.
“SPLIT” IN ISRAEL’S INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY
Comment by Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring: Though the Assad regime has provided ISRAEL more
than 40 years of “stability” along its EASTERN frontier, above argument of
toppling the Assad regime has some legitimacy if one takes into account the 15
year civil war in LEBANON, which has not caused much security concerns for ISRAEL,
despite the fact that Jihadists of various fractions fought a vicious war along
ISRAEL’s NORTHERN frontier.
The split in the intelligence
community “to some degree reflects the split that existed prior to the uprising
in SYRIA,” Spyer said.
“The Assad regime is a dangerous
force because of its alliance with IRAN” — but it is “not fanatical,” and has
never supported hardliner Islamist groups such as those leading the rebel
fighting.
These groups pose the lesser risk,
he maintains.
“The presence of fledgling armed
groups on the border… is a concern.
“But Assad going would be a blow to
Hezbollah, which is the most powerful paramilitary force” opposing ISRAEL in
the region, Spyer said.
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| IAF Airstrike in Syria |
Earlier this month, ISRAEL
implicitly admitted carrying out a January air strike on a weapons convoy in SYRIA
thought to be en route to LEBANON’S Hezbollah — a long-time Damascus ally.
Mike Herzog, former head of
strategic planning in the Israeli army and a fellow at the Washington Institute
for Near East Policy, agreed.
Background Information:
IRANIAN GENERAL AND TWO AIDES WERE
THE REAL TARGET OF ALLEGED ISRAELI AIRSTRIKE IN SYRIA at:
INCREASED
IRANIAN INFLUENCE IN SYRIA PROVOKED ISRAEL TO CHANGE ITS LONGSTANDING TACTICS
REGARDING SYRIA at:
Comment by Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring: One should not forget that in most likelihood Israel’s
rhetoric regarding Iran, to some extent is a welcome geopolitical tool as well
as bargaining chip for future negotiations, economic deals and strengthening of
its political position in the Middle East, rather than a real security concern.
Such rhetoric’s also distract from internal problems and justify increasing its
weapon arsenal etc.
“Israel would be better off without
the Assad regime,” he said, describing the SYRIAN president as “a lynchpin”
connecting IRAN and Hezbollah.
“If the regime collapses this will
be a very serious blow to IRAN, Hezbollah and the whole axis.
Background Information:
IRAN
SOFTENS TUNE ON ISRAEL at:
“This doesn’t come without risks —
the risk of Islamists and jihadists becoming a dominant force in a future SYRIA,”
Herzog cautioned.
ISRAEL’S CHOICE BETWEEN TWO EVILS
But Assad clinging onto power would
“outweigh the risk of Islamist elements coming to the force. Of course that’s
not something ISRAELIS would like to see… (but they) have to choose between two
evils,” he said.
A victorious jihadist-dominated
rebel force would not be able to form as cohesive and large-scale a threat to
Israel as Assad, IRAN and Hezbollah working together, Herzog said.
“There are other elements in SYRIA.
It’s a very complex mixture of ethnic and sectarian groups. It’s more likely to
go in the direction of… areas controlled by different elements.
“We’re more likely to see this
scenario than a central government with control over the whole of Syria,” he
said.
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| "NEW SYRIA" |
The perceived jihadist threat,
whilst a concern is far less worrying than the possibility of chemical or non-chemical
weapons falling into wrong hands. This is a much more complicated challenge to
deal with,” said Herzog.
FALL OF THE REGIME WILL WEAKEN IRAN’S STRATEGIC POSITION IN
THE MIDDLE EAST?
Eli Karmon, a senior fellow at the
Institute for Policy and Strategy in Herzliya, also saw the fallout of Assad’s
ouster as a more manageable threat.
“The most important thing is to see
the fall of the regime. This will provoke … the weakening of Iran’s strategic
position in the Middle East… and Hezbollah will be much more isolated and under
pressure,” he said.
Background Information:
SUNNI VERSUS SHIITE at:
Karmon acknowledged the opposing
view in certain defence and strategic circles.
“There are some who think the best
thing would be to have the regime and opposition fighting as long as possible
in order to weaken (both of) them,” he said.
In any case, ISRAEL cannot
decisively influence the outcome of the SYRIAN conflict, the analysts noted,
saying the best course of action for the Jewish state was to avoid involvement
unless its security is directly threatened.
ISRAEL has already responded with
fire to mortar and small arms fire spilling over the ceasefire line in the
occupied Golan Heights this year.
What is assumed in government is
that “40 years of quiet along the northern border will come to an end,” Herzog
said.
At that stage, “both sides in the ISRAELI
(intelligence) discussion would have to agree on the practical measures needed
to be taken, which would boil down to strengthening border security,” said
Spyer.
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