NOTHING HAS GONE RIGHT FOR RIYADH
BY DAVID P. GOLDMAN via Asia Times
Recent mass executions in SAUDI
ARABIA suggest panic at the highest level of the monarchy. The action is
without precedent, even by the grim standards of SAUDI repression. In 1980 RIYADH
killed 63 jihadists who had attacked the Grand Mosque of MECCA, but that was
fresh after the event. Most of the 47 prisoners shot and beheaded on Jan. 2 had
sat in SAUDI jails for a decade. The decision to kill the prominent SHIA cleric
NIMR AL-NIMR, the most prominent spokesman for restive SAUDI SHIA MUSLIMS IN
EASTERN PROVINCE, betrays fear of subversion with IRANIAN sponsorship.
Background
Information:
SAUDIS
DISCRIMINATION AND MISTREATMENT AGAINST SHIA IN ITS EASTERN PROVINCE COULD
BACKFIRE
OIL
RICH AND LARGELY SHIA EASTERN PROVINCE OF SAUDI ARABIA FACES INCREASING
PROTESTS
SAUDI
ARABIA ACCUSED IRAN FOR SUPPORTING UNREST IN SHIITE DOMINATED PROVINCE
Why kill them all now? It is very
hard to evaluate the scale of internal threats to the SAUDI monarchy, but the
broader context for its concern is clear: SAUDI ARABIA finds itself isolated, abandoned
by its longstanding AMERICAN ally, at odds with CHINA, and pressured by RUSSIA’S
sudden preeminence in the region. The SAUDI-backed Army of Conquest in SYRIA seems
to be crumbling under RUSSIAN attack. The SAUDI intervention in YEMEN against IRAN-backed
HOUTHI rebels has gone poorly. And its TURKISH ally-of-convenience is consumed
by a low-level civil war. Nothing has gone right for RIYADH.
REDUCED
SPENDING POWER IS THE BIGGEST THREAT TO THE HOUSE OF SAUD
Worst of all, the collapse of SAUDI
oil revenues threatens to exhaust the kingdom’s $700 billion in financial
reserves within five years, according to an October estimate by the
International Monetary Fund. The House of SAUD relies on subsidies to buy the
loyalty of the vast majority of its subjects, and its reduced spending power is
the biggest threat to its rule. Last week RIYADH cut subsidies for water,
electricity and gasoline. The timing of the executions may be more than
coincidence: the royal family’s capacity to buy popular support is eroding just
as its regional security policy has fallen apart.
RIYADH
- AN ALLY OF THE WEST AND A FORCE FOR STABILITY IN THE REGION, WHILE PROVIDING
FINANCIAL SUPPORT FOR WAHHABI FUNDAMENTALISM
For decades, RIYADH has presented
itself as an ally of the WEST and a force for stability in the region, while
providing financial support for WAHHABI fundamentalism around the world. CHINA
has been the kingdom’s largest customer as well as a provider of sophisticated
weapons, including surface-to-surface missiles. But CHINA also has lost
patience with the monarchy’s support for WAHHABI Islamists in CHINA and
bordering countries.
According to a senior CHINESE
analyst, the SAUDIS are the main source of funding for ISLAMIST MADRASSAS in WESTERN
CHINA, where the “EAST TURKISTAN Independence Movement” has launched several
large-scale terror attacks. Although the SAUDI government has reassured BEIJING
that it does not support the homegrown terrorists, it either can’t or won’t
stop some members of the royal family from channeling funds to the local JIHADIS
through informal financial channels. “Our
biggest worry in the MIDDLE EAST isn’t oil—it’s SAUDI ARABIA,” the analyst
said.
CHINA’S MUSLIMS—mainly UYGHURS in WESTERNCHINA who speak a TURKISH dialect— are SUNNI rather than SHIA. Like RUSSIA, CHINA does not have to worry
about IRANIAN agitation among SHIA JIHADIS, and tends to prefer IRAN to the SUNNI
powers. As a matter of form, BEIJING wants to appear even-handed in its
dealings with IRAN and SAUDI ARABIA, for example in recent contacts between
their respective navies. CHINESE analysts emphasize that BEIJING has sold
weapons to both—more in absolute to terms to IRAN but more sophisticated
weapons to the SAUDIS.
Background
Information:
THE
MIDDLE EAST IS PERVADED AND INCREASINGLY INFECTED BY THE SECTARIAN RIVALRY
BETWEEN THE SHIITE PERSIANS AND THE WAHHABI SAUDIS, WHO ARE NOW FIGHTING PROXY
WARS ALL OVER THE REGION
MORE
PERTINENT THAN PUBLIC DIPLOMACY, THOUGH, IS WHERE CHINA IS BUYING ITS OIL.
Nonetheless, CHINA’S oil import
data show a significant shift away from SAUDI ARABIA towards RUSSIA and OMAN
(which CHINA considers part of the IRANIAN sphere of influence). RUSSIA’S oil
exports to CHINA have grown fourfold since 2010 while SAUDI exports have
stagnated. Given the world oil glut, CHINA can pick and choose its suppliers,
and it is hard to avoid the inference that BEIJING is buying more from RUSSIA
for strategic reasons. According to RUSSIAN
sources, CHINA also has allowed RUSSIAN oil companies to delay physical
delivery of oil due under existing contracts, permitting RUSSIA to sell the oil
on the open market for cash—the equivalent of a cash loan to RUSSIA.
CHINA’S
INTERESTS IN SYRIA COINCIDE WITH RUSSIA’S.
Both
have reason to fear the growth of ISIS as a magnet for their own JIHADIS. Thousands of CHINESE UYGHURS make their way into SOUTHEAST ASIA via
the porous southern border of YUNNAN province, with financial assistance from SAUDI supporters and logistical support—including
passports—from local TURKISH consulates. CHINESE UYGHURS were implicated in the bombing of BANGKOK’S
ERAWAN Temple last August, and have linked up with ISIS supporters as far south
as INDONESIA. TURKEY reported last month that most Jihadists crossing its
border into SYRIA to join ISIS are CHINESE MUSLIMS.
With KURDISH and allied forces
gaining control of SYRIA’S border with TURKEY, aided by RUSSIAN air support, CHINESE
UYGHURS may lose access to SYRIA. Late in December KURDISH forces crossed to
the western bank of the EUPHRATES RIVER and are in position to link up with KURDISH
militias in northwestern SYRIA, eliminating TURKISH hopes of a “safe zone”
controlled by TURKEY on the southern side of the SYRIAN border. For its part, TURKEY risks paralysis from a
low-intensity civil war with its KURDISH population. The KURDISH-majority
southeast of the country is under siege and fighting has spread to TURKEY’S
western provinces.
It’s an ill wind that blows
nobody good, and CHINA seems hopeful that it has contained its JIHADIST
problem. On New Year’s Day, the Communist Party leader in CHINA’S XINJIANG province
declared that “the atmosphere for religious extremism has weakened markedly.”
CHINA
IS EXTREMELY RELUCTANT TO COMMIT MILITARY FORCES TO OVERSEAS CONFLICTS,
and its military is ill-prepared
to do so even if BEIJING were to change its mind. The People’s Liberation Army
lacks ground attack aircraft like the two squadrons of RUSSIAN Su-24 and Su-25
deployed in SYRIA. Nonetheless, BEIJING is happy that RUSSIA is reducing ISIS
forces in SYRIA as well as SAUDI- and TURKISH-backed SUNNI ISLAMISTS like the
Army of Conquest.
It will be hard to evaluate the
success of RUSSIAN bombing in SYRIA until the dust settles, but there is a
great deal of dust in the air. According to ISRAELI sources, RUSSIA is dumping
vast amounts of its Cold War inventory of dumb bombs on SYRIAN SUNNIS with
devastating effect. The RUSSIAN bombing campaign makes up in volume what it
lacks in sophistication, killing far more civilians than WESTERN militaries
would tolerate, but changing the situation on the ground. That explains RUSSIAN
President VLADIMIR PUTIN’S newfound popularity among world leaders. He is doing
their dirty work.
SAUDI ARABIA’S proxies in SYRIA
are in trouble. Early in 2015, the Army of Conquest (JAISH AL-FATEH), a
coalition of AL-QAIDA and other SUNNI ISLAMISTS backed by the SAUDIS, TURKS and
QATARIS, had driven the SYRIAN army out of several key positions in NORTHWEST
SYRIA, threatening the ASSAD regime’s core ALAWITE heartland. The coalition
began breaking up in November, however, and the SYRIAN Army recently retook
several villages it had lost to the Army of Conquest. One of the Army of
Conquest’s constituent militias, FAILAQ AL-SHAM, announced Jan. 3 that it was
leaving the coalition to defend ALEPPO against regime forces reinforced by RUSSIA.
Background
Information:
FOR
THIRTY YEARS, SAUDI ARABIA HAS BEEN ENGAGED IN A PROXY WAR WITH IRAN
RUSSIA
HAS SHOWN NO INTEREST IN INTERFERING WITH ISRAELI AIR STRIKES AGAINST
HEZBOLLAH.
Everything seems to have gone
wrong at once for RIYADH. The only consolation the monarchy has under the
circumstances is that its nemesis IRAN also is suffering from the collapse of
oil revenues and the attrition of war. IRAN began withdrawing its Revolutionary
Guard forces from SYRIA in December, largely due to high casualties. The high
cost of maintaining the war effort as IRAN’S finances implode also may have
been a factor. IRAN’S LEBANESE SHIA proxy, HEZBOLLAH, has suffered extremely
high casualties, virtually neutralizing its whole first echelon of combat
troops. And RUSSIA has shown no interest in interfering with Israeli air
strikes against HEZBOLLAH.
SOON
THE WEST MAY NOT BE ABLE TO KEEP THE HOUSE OF SAUD IN POWER WHETHER IT WANTS TO
OR NOT
The oil price collapse turns the
competition between SAUDI ARABIA and IRAN into a race to the bottom. But the
monarchy’s panicked response to its many setbacks of the past several months
raises a difficult question. In the past, the WEST did what it could to prop up
the SAUDI royal family as a pillar of stability in the region, despite the SAUDIS’
support for JIHADI terrorism. Soon the West may not be able to keep the House
of SAUD in power whether it wants to or not.
Great readding your post
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